More Dominos to Fall in the Arab Evolution?
I have just read the entry made by Robin Lustig of BBC Radio 4 which makes an interesting point of the potential domino effect of these autocratic regimes as seen by their peoples now changing through generally dramatic protest and how it is perceived vis-a-vis the worries of Saudi Arabia and the price of oil which of course effects most of our energy requirements.
Although he looks at the knowledge that he has regarding Bahrain and Yemen, we do not seem to have any analysis at this time of the potential for Kuwait, UAE, and Qatar amongst what the "West" perceives as progressive and friendly countries and then also if there are concerns with the unfriendly countries of Syria, Iran and Lebanon within the region we would categorise as the Middle East. Are we in fact at a stage where regimes that are not thought as being overly autocratic can loosen the financial econmonic distribution of funds as a way of maintaining their control, but evidently after financial control comes some progress towards political freedom, or is the slope steeper than these regimes think.
Then how do we apply this. Concerns with other Arab African states and then what about sub-Sahara Africa, the Ivory Coast etc in the west and dare one even think about potential regime change in Zimbabwe. Then does this potential also apply to Russia (given that Gorbachev readily exclaims that the duopoloy of Medvedev and Putin is dangerous for a pluralistic open society in Russia) and then through the former Soviet republics throughout mainly Asia before we come to the big one that is China. This is probably a more longer term effect but if foreign policy think tanks are not thinking about these sort of events and the impact on the "national interest" right now then that is worrying.
I believe that we are part way down a phase of country re-engineering. The break up of Yugoslavia and Soviet Union in Europe and Asia, Eritrea and Southern Sudan as a start in Africa which is going to at least lead to policial power moving to a more regional basis from a centralised basis. However, many countries may see the UK as a good example of a perceived regional basis of political democracy but that true power (tax collection) remaining in the hands of a national government as a means of maintaining power. Otherwise countries such as Libya may become several separate national states becuase of the relative interests and tribalistic needs of each of these geographical areas. At least in foreign affairs we are living in truely interesting times.
Although he looks at the knowledge that he has regarding Bahrain and Yemen, we do not seem to have any analysis at this time of the potential for Kuwait, UAE, and Qatar amongst what the "West" perceives as progressive and friendly countries and then also if there are concerns with the unfriendly countries of Syria, Iran and Lebanon within the region we would categorise as the Middle East. Are we in fact at a stage where regimes that are not thought as being overly autocratic can loosen the financial econmonic distribution of funds as a way of maintaining their control, but evidently after financial control comes some progress towards political freedom, or is the slope steeper than these regimes think.
Then how do we apply this. Concerns with other Arab African states and then what about sub-Sahara Africa, the Ivory Coast etc in the west and dare one even think about potential regime change in Zimbabwe. Then does this potential also apply to Russia (given that Gorbachev readily exclaims that the duopoloy of Medvedev and Putin is dangerous for a pluralistic open society in Russia) and then through the former Soviet republics throughout mainly Asia before we come to the big one that is China. This is probably a more longer term effect but if foreign policy think tanks are not thinking about these sort of events and the impact on the "national interest" right now then that is worrying.
I believe that we are part way down a phase of country re-engineering. The break up of Yugoslavia and Soviet Union in Europe and Asia, Eritrea and Southern Sudan as a start in Africa which is going to at least lead to policial power moving to a more regional basis from a centralised basis. However, many countries may see the UK as a good example of a perceived regional basis of political democracy but that true power (tax collection) remaining in the hands of a national government as a means of maintaining power. Otherwise countries such as Libya may become several separate national states becuase of the relative interests and tribalistic needs of each of these geographical areas. At least in foreign affairs we are living in truely interesting times.
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